Forecast Discussion
The North Carolina Division of Air Quality issues forecasts for fine particulate matter year-round and ozone from March through October. Forecasts and discussions are updated each afternoon for the next three days, and are sometimes updated in the morning to reflect the latest ambient conditions.
This forecast was issued on Friday, May 17, 2024 at 2:25 pm.
This forecast is currently valid.
Today's Air Quality Conditions
Current daily average fine particulate concentrations are just over the Code Yellow threshold near the Charlotte area thus far today, with Code Green conditions elsewhere. Ozone concentrations are Code Green statewide today.
For a display of the most recent Air Quality Index (AQI) conditions throughout the day, visit the Ambient Information Reporter (AIR) tool.
General Forecast Discussion
Moisture advection ramps up on Saturday as dew points reach into the low 70’s in portions of the state. This combined with the ongoing cloudy/unsettled weather will keep ozone in the Code Green range statewide. Particle pollution should also hold in the mid-upper Code Green range.
Outlook
On Sunday morning, surface high pressure will nose in from the northeast as the low moves offshore, dragging a cold front down across the state. Aloft, a very positively tilted trough axis swings through and with enough moisture and PVA to generate some additional precipitation as the system moves offshore. Expect both ozone and fine particulate levels in the Code Green range Sunday.
Monday, heights rise again as an elongated upper ridge moves in from the northwest and high pressure continues to settle in from the northeast. NNE surface flow will deliver a fresh, clean air mass to the region. Weak PVA within the bottom of the departing upper trough combined with wrap-around moisture will give us partly cloudy skies throughout day, which should help temper ozone formation. Expect Code Green air quality on Monday.
Monday, heights rise again as an elongated upper ridge moves in from the northwest and high pressure continues to settle in from the northeast. NNE surface flow will deliver a fresh, clean air mass to the region. Weak PVA within the bottom of the departing upper trough combined with wrap-around moisture will give us partly cloudy skies throughout day, which should help temper ozone formation. Expect Code Green air quality on Monday.
Extended Air Quality Outlook
The forecast Air Quality Index value for each pollutant represents the highest value expected within each county, so some areas and monitors may see lower values. We use the best information and techniques available to ensure the quality and accuracy of the forecasts we provide to the public. Note that ranges do not include the nine-county Triad region, which is covered by the Forsyth County Office of Environmental Assistance and Protection.
Forecast Day
AQI Range
Category Range
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North Ridges
South Ridges
(Elevation > 4,000 feet)